As life expectancy increases and the baby-boomer generation reaches old age, more people are living longer with major illness. While living longer is something to celebrate, this will have profound implications for the NHS and other public services.
People are also projected to spend more time living with major illness.
While life expectancy is increasing, the average age at which people are expected to be living with major illness is projected to remain constant at 70 years. This means people are living longer with major illness – an increase from 11.2 years in 2019 to 12.6 years in 2040.
This not only directly impacts on the people living with major illness but also creates additional pressures on all of us to care for and fund a growing population with more health and care needs.
The number of people living with major illness is projected to increase by 37% by 2040 (2.5m from 6.7m to 9.1m*). This is nine times the rate of increase in the working age population, which is projected to grow by 4% (from 35.5m to 37.9m).
What conditions will increase the most?
There will be millions of new cases of several highly prevalent or high-need conditions.